Economic Rosy Picture, I Think Not!

I have been a fan of Nouriel Roubini for some time now. He seems to me to be consistently right about the economic situation in the U.S. He was raising the alarm about cheap money and the housing bubble back in the day and was dismissed as a hysterical pundit and totally unserious. Well, maybe not so much by today’s news.

Following Roubini is part of my theory that it is important to follow those who have been right, though not lauded by the MSM. It would never occur to me to believe anything that William Kristol says and what he thinks on policy, other than as a cautionary tale, just because the MSM thinks he is a very “Serious” pundit. Kristol and his ilk are too often wrong, and very “Seriously” wrong to our Nation’s detriment. None-the-less our MSM continues to promote their agenda in print and through the electronic media. I, on the other hand, prefer those who have been right on the issues that effect our Nation and Nouriel Roubini is one of those who have been right.

Now it seems that some are starting to get the picture and it isn’t very pretty:

October 20, 2007

Analysis: Finance Chiefs Have Full Plate

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 7:51 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Faced with soaring oil prices, a falling dollar and the worst credit crisis in nearly a decade, the masters of global finance have a simple message for jittery markets: Be calm, we are keeping an eye on things.

It probably didn't help, however, that the new assurances came exactly 20 years from the date of the worst market meltdown in U.S. history.

The meeting of finance leaders from the Group of Seven industrial countries coincided with the anniversary of ''Black Monday,'' Oct. 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones industrial average plunged by 22.6 percent, its biggest one-day percentage loss ever.

While Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and their G-7 counterparts did not dwell on those long-ago eventsq during their discussions Friday, the anniversary served as an eerie reminder that the global economy does not always perform as its handlers wish that it would.

It didn't help that while the policymakers were holding their discussions in Treasury's ornate Cash Room, the Dow Jones industrial average was plunging by 366.94 points, or 2.64 percent. It was the third-biggest point drop this year and reflected in part oil prices that momentarily climbed to a new record, above $90 per barrel.

The problems this year came to a boil when credit markets essentially froze on Aug. 9 as fear overwhelmed many investors.

Troubles that began in the market for subprime mortgages have spread to many other kinds of debt. The credit crunch has been similar in intensity to the crisis that hit the global economy in August 1998 after Russia devalued the ruble.

Paulson, speaking to reporters after Friday's meeting, said the G-7 officials are watching market developments closely.

However, in their joint statement of goals, the officials essentially rehashed previous bland assurances about cooperation in such areas as limiting volatility in currency markets. Absent were any examples of where big differences in approach had been resolved.

European finance ministers had hoped the Bush administration would agree to more forceful actions to limit the sharp fall in the value of the dollar, which has hit record lows against the euro. That has helped American manufacturers by making their goods cheaper in European markets but is pinching European companies.

Paulson said he told the other G-7 officials that a strong dollar is in the best interests of the United States, an oft-repeated view that the Europeans complain is not being backed up with any action to halt the dollar's slide.

''I heard my colleague Hank Paulson say a strong dollar is good for the American economy. I hope the market will hear him. That's not the case today,'' complained French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde.

There also was no meeting of minds on the issue of whether all the credit market turmoil pointed to a need for tighter regulations, especially of hedge funds, the giant pools of cash that are largely unregulated.

The United States wants to keep them that way, declaring that government interference will slow market innovations, while France and Germany have been pressing for increased oversight.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said he was pleased to see progress was being made in coming up with proposals for ''best practices'' for hedge funds although the United States is insisting those practices be voluntary.

Paulson said the G-7 officials, who will continue talks through the weekend as part of the fall meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, believe the global economy is on the mend.

''The consensus was that markets are better than in August,'' he told reporters. ''It has been slowly improving, but it is going to take awhile.''

But in its new forecast, the IMF trimmed its estimate of U.S. growth next year by almost a full percentage point and warned that the prospects for the global economy are ''firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown.''

If things do get worse, it is entirely possible that the G-7 countries will find the political will to take more forceful actions. But the problem is they may be out of practice because the world economy had been doing relatively well until this year.

''You have oil prices surging to record levels and a global credit crisis and currency volatility,'' said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, a Denver-consulting firm. ''It has been a long time since the G-7 has faced this many financial threats.''

So, hold on to your wallets folks. It appears that times maybe getting just a little more difficult than you had been led to believe by those in charge and promoted by the MSM.