Tuli Can't Stop Talking

These are just my thoughts on contemporary issues and an attempt to open up a dialogue.

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A citizen who cares deeply about the United States Constitution and the Rule of Law.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Andros on the Debate

I am late on this post but Andros is such an optimist. I love it. And I always hope that he is right. We will see what happens in the second one. I am of the opinion that if Obama isn’t up by about 20 points he is in trouble (Bradley/Wilder Effect) and I despair. You can see why I need this constant optimism that Andros supplies.

3 Comments:

Blogger Andros said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

12:46 AM  
Blogger Andros said...

Well, thanks for the plug. I'd like to believe that there's a reason for my optimism.

No one can predict the future, but a few things can have a higher degree of certainty.

Back in June when I wrote about BO's options for VP, I said that this election had the potential of a political realignment (it happens once every generation or so) and that BO could win in a landslide.

During the GOP convention with polls showing Mac-Palin edging BO-Biden, it seemed to me that this wouldn't last for the following reasons:
*S Palin: net negative
*Economy, stupid!
*Change (BO is change and Mac isn't according to every poll)
*new voters
*electoral college map. Since Iowa went solidly blue long since, Mac only threatened in PA (never really gaining the edge), so BO keeping all Kerry states and Mac losing some...

Plus I predicted that if BO maintains a steady lead--even if within the statistical margin of error--this will create a momentum that will add a couple points in the battleground states....

So, far,thankfuly,so good.

Unless there's a late Oct. surprise, BO should win, and the Dems will add to the House & the Senate. The latter may come very close to 60--a number that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

I'd like to have Rove's money, because I can make better predictions. In 2006 he said the Rpubs would keep control of Congress! Now he says he has The Math! Plus "secret" polls that show Mac winning and the Senate flipping to the GOP...

Aha!

12:50 AM  
Anonymous votetheday.com said...

Is it possible, that Obama's lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here - http://www.votetheday.com/america/secret-racism-will-subvert-obamas-advantage-333

3:02 PM  

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